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[Music]

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I'm gonna make a little bit more nesting

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than that and talk about travel on which

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we found out about right after we

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submitted abstracts so this goes right

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in with Robbie and spoiler alert I agree

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totally with what Robbie just said one

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he is the only planet I find that can be

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really earth-like so that's great to

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agree so fortunately I can just skip all

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the habitable zone stuff Jacob and

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Robbie gave excellent introductions to

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this it's not going to work go go

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forward okay oops too far No all right

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and I'm going to jump right into what

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I'm going to be talking about which is

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different climatic states you can have

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for these variety of different amador of

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terrestrial planets kind of giving a

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little teaser to a bunch of the work on

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proxy NV that'll be presented on Friday

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this plot shows a different variety of

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evolutionary States that could happen

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around an M dwarf because of its super

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luminous pre main sequence phase you can

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strip off a lot of water and end up with

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different combinations of of how much

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water and how much oxygen you have to

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the point where Rodrigo lugar and Barnes

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and some other papers showed that you

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could have you know hundreds even

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thousands of bars of oxygen abiotic we

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produced oxygen on an M dwarf

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terrestrial planet even in the habitable

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zones such as procs 10 B so that is kind

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of a downer but there's other potential

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States we could have as well and the

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work by Barnsdall that synergy right now

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showed a bunch of different evolutionary

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states and in the second paper by

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Meadows well we went through a bunch of

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these different planetary states that

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could exist around a habitable zone

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planet of M dwarf and just to go through

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some of these really quickly we believe

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we can find ways that you can have X of

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Earth maybe a little bit extra co2 to

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keep it warm enough you could have an

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early Earth type planet you could have a

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one of these abiotic oxygen planets that

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we found from the evolutionary work you

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could also have kind of these more

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evolved atmospheres just like the oxygen

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one if you did strip off the oxygen

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you could also out gas co2 as well just

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like with Venus

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and so you could end up with some kind

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of ExoMars like peter GAO did some work

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in 2015 showing that if you have a very

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very desiccated planet with less than 1

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ppm hydrogen you could have a planet

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that's in photochemical equilibrium

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between co2 co2 and some ozone and in

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this planet the recombination rate for

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co2 would just be so low that you could

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have again another ibotta coxa gen

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signature there's a couple others I

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think sandy Harmon had touched on in an

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earlier talk then you could also have

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perhaps a planet that out gas co2 but

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also still had oxygen and then you could

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even just have extra Venus where the

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oxygen got stripped off but it out gas

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co2 later and these just for Proximus NB

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and Viki will talk Vicky Meadows will

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talk a lot more about these on Friday

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but you can even get a planet in the

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middle of the habitable zone with Venus

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like temperatures so going forward to

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what I'll be doing with Trappist one is

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here's just a kind of a little diagram

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of the models i'm using i'm a new 1d

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rated convective model we call dis VPL

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climate and it does fantastic radiative

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transfer line-by-line multi-stream multi

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scattering everything convection and

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condensation we couple this with our

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photochemical model at MOS and it does

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all those stuff together and what we do

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is we iterate the temperature profiles

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with the condensed bowls and the

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photochemical species so the climate

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model we start with provides a

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temperature structure the mixing ratios

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we've assumed to begin with based on

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those earlier climatic States and then

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also the condensable profiles and that

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feeds into the photochemical model and

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then the photochemical model is iterated

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to equilibrium and then it can feed back

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the various constituents and how they've

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changed and so these are iterated

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separately and coupled until equilibrium

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until they're both in equilibrium and

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then at any given point and we have our

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you know converged state and at any

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given point we also can produce line by

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line transmission and direct imaging

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spectra which in this session we want to

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connect modeling with observations so

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that's SP is observable as the spectra

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we go forward there we go

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so talking just a little bit about how

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the model iterates and it's condensable

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here's just a snippet of runs these are

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nestled even the converse one

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but how we have a temperature profile on

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left of an EXO Venus such as Travis 1c

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potentially and then the condensable

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mixing ratios of the actual condensate

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on the right and you can see how as the

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model goes through several model runs

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and it goes you know the temperature

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profile varies until the dotted line was

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the last one the same thing here we see

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how the mixing ratio has changed

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throughout the climate run so we're

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calculating the condensed flows at every

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time step and then we can prescribe the

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aerosols based on how much condensate

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mass is left and then the radiative

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transfer routine can use those aerosols

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so going on to the results which is what

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I really want to talk about before I go

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to those slides I'm going to show a few

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transmission spectra while the baseline

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values are different because these

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planets I'm showing are different sizes

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around the same star they all have the

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same scaling of 200 ppm from from the

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y-axis and then I also show which is the

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exciting part I think for the public is

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what these planets would look like to

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the naked eye to the human eye

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observed from afar oh sorry

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those will actually be the transients

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vector I want to go through the climates

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first and so instead of doing all six of

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those from that we talked about with

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proxy and B with seven plans to choose

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from

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and all these different climates the

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model takes a long time only doing a few

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of the examples that are converged EXO

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Earth with extra co2 like we talked

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about and it's important to note too

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here you get a 200 fold increase in

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methane which I don't think is mentioned

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yet these M Dwarfs the photochemistry is

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very important and you end up with a lot

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more methane so that will be an

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observable feature we all see the EXO

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Venus with the sulfuric acid

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condensation and then the a about ik

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ocean planets or ocean lost planets that

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are completely desiccated at the EM so

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no water and you get interesting

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temperatures there we go again we have

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the one he like I agreed with with Ravi

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said about Eric Wolf's work I also had

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struggle trying to make these warm

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enough they would freeze over I didn't

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try the maximum greenhouse type thing

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yet with those but even once I got up to

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a large fraction of you know less than 1

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bar of co2 they were still 4

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one over and then these went in to run

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away X 11 s these are hard they're still

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running but you get very hot you can

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very hot temperatures this is even a

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clear sky Venus and some preliminary

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work we've done has shown that so Furyk

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acid may not even form as much around

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these stars so you may end up with a

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clear sky Venus that doesn't even have

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sulfuric acid clouds but for this case

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with 4 ppm this one does then of course

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a about a coxton planet without water

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actually is much cooler so you can get

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you know so-called habitable temperature

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already gave the caveat about this again

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you get eye color and the plot here so

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this beautiful pale orange dot would be

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an extrovert so it's not even not a pale

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blue playdoh blue dot like our earth and

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it's not a pale lavender dot like we

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found for Proxima and B which would kind

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of be like this color it's still just

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reflecting the color of the star which

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is roughly this color the important

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thing here is you get these pretty

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decent ozone features right here you get

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whopping co2 feature which is going to

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be a feature pretty much any outcast

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planet co2 gives us that nice band there

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and a bunch of methane and co2 and water

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features are interspersed through here

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and from the 0.1 percent methane that

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you get it's actually you get

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substantial methane features and if you

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look at the differences here you get

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easily 50 ppm features across the board

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here and almost 100 ppm for co2 so this

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is I would say definitely observable

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JWST and you even have other scientists

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I know there's a lot of you know cynical

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work about like oh it might just be 50

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ppm people like Drake Deming have

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suggested that you might get down to the

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note the photon noise floor of one to

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two ppm for JDBC which would be

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fantastic and then you would see all of

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this but even at 50 ppm if we want to be

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you know pessimistic you get co2 out

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moving on to the other ones EXO Venus

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this is like one sees this is very Venus

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like you can notice that like many of

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the transmission spectra that have been

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taken by HST for cloudy planets you get

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a flat and featureless spectrum in the

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visible and nothing important to see

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there other than the fact that you can

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see the transit height is so much higher

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in terms of the

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planetary structure you're only probing

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the very upper reaches of this

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atmosphere and we're not going to really

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know this part of that's not the

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observable right this is the modeler

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side and this is the observers like you

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still get over 50 ppm of signal for co2

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and these fantastic co2 bands and that's

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really all there is there except this

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v-shape that the job our knees pointed

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out to me about sulfuric acid which you

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say oh okay I don't know if there's

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really a v-shape right there that's

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what's really flat but when you zoom in

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on the data then you can see that there

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is an actual like 2 to 4 ppm v-shape

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centered at 2.7 microns and then in the

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near IR so if we get down to 1 to 2 ppm

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noise floor and jwc even this would be

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an observable feature for a Venus like

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planet which would be fantastic and then

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my last atmosphere I simulated here

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would be at the abiotic oxygen planet

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and I think we've had a lot of talks in

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the session about co2 earth-like planets

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and so I get to talk about one that's

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really very different this you see this

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beautiful color this I mean this is not

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just a pale blue dot this is like a

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brilliant blue dot significant ozone

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bands because this desiccated planet

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can't destroy those own you get even a

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hundred ppm features out of co2 ozone

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and even you get observable collisional

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induced absorption features of oxygen so

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these could be differentiated from each

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other by some of the various features

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having that strong ozone lack of water

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or lack of methane in a desiccated

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planet so in conclusion I've shown that

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these climates are really dependent on

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the evolution of the star the M dwarfs

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are very super luminous to remain

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sequence phase this can desiccate the

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planet it can strip off the atmosphere

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or it could leave the the atmosphere

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with with some amount of water depending

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on how much hydrogen the planet started

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with and how much water you can actually

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retain or the planet could out gas and

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so the composition of the planet then

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drives the climate and this ends up

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giving us what the state is for a given

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planets insulation it's not just its

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position in the habitable zone any given

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position may have a variety of different

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states depending on the

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and furthermore Trappist one will be a

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great example to provide us an

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opportunity to examine this evolutionary

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sequence with seven planets and I kind

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of skipped over that colors gets the

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abalone part but with these three

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planets in the habitable zone with two

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outside and the Venus area and then a

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couple that are really cold we can

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really with trap you know if we can

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observe the Trappist planets with jwc

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this could give us a whole number of

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examples of how this evolutionary

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sequence might occur just from looking

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at the one stellar target thank you good

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great talk

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so two questions one can you go back to

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your slide to where you showed the Venus

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spectrum I think it went a bit fast for

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me to see the transit death how much is

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how much you sell residue this total

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thing is 200 ppm right here so the

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differential is between you know 70 75

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and call it 70 10 so 65 ppm ish is over

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50 still for those and this you're only

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probing 90 kilometers which is the top

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of the cloud deck basically okay and

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that's 100 pascals there that's this is

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for the Venus analog that yeah okay yeah

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great talk um in terms of the actual you

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know noise floor or what you can

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actually observe with wavelengths that

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encourage you to actually go online and

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run some of these Sims them on you know

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connects or another JDBC calculation

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you'll find that the Miri instrument

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which is beyond five microns has broad

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bands but the not just the noise floor

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but the overall sensitivity and

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throughput of the instrument is much

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poorer than an infrared one so your co2

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then at 4.5 or 4.3 letters may be much

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better for co2 constraints or anything

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else so I would really focus on short

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words of 5 microns which there's a

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number of great bands and all of your

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models and Miri yes it appears from

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these plots as if it's the best but if

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you focus on short words and I

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you run some accusations you should be

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so my question to us on that is in the

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earth like one that could really hit

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home too far could really help because

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these are strong bands right here too we

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could have the methane so those could be

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really great yeah good to know thank you

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I might add to that that Jacob Lustig

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Jager is going to be talking about

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spectral mapping and whatnot and so that

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might be great to to consider other ways

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of observing a live inspector I just

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have a quick crawl up toward avi you are

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seeing with the broadness of the

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features help in the mihrab and to do if

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the the transit depth is below 50 ppm

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with the broadness of the features will

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have helped so far exactly because this

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is the co2 Bank it's so large that it

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you get a strong signal over a large

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wavelength range so even at Corey fans

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so actually yeah so like okay if you had

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a box here okay so I'm going to talk on

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Friday about actually using phase

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dependent thermal emission to go after

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things like co2 because it is so broad

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and we can use a merry bands for that so

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that's a different way of getting at

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this it's time for one quick questions

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in this is quick thanks for a great talk

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so given the uncertainty on the bulk

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densities of the planets from the

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transit time variations how sensitive

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the convergence of your models to those

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bulk densities and did you try a range

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within the uncertainties of of those

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I've not tried a range for each plan and

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I just essentially took the nominal

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value and there are they yeah he said

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the air bars are huge on the mass that

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definitely changes the scale heights and

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so that would that would certainly

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affect some of these results what I

384
00:15:20,199 --> 00:15:18,769
found is that using you know flying

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these same atmospheres to each planet

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the ones that can converge the the

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climate states are relatively robust

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amongst the different masses of the

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planets so you know doing like D and E

390
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and getting you know consistent

391
00:15:36,519 --> 00:15:34,699
temperatures given the fact that their

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insulation is lower for for a for

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example

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climate still show similar things okay